Spurs to go backwards without Bale

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Do not wait for Gareth Bale to quit Tottenham: bet on Spurs having a disappointing English Premier League season before the Welsh wizard decides to walk out of White Hart Lane.

With Bale odds on to leave Tottenham before the start of the English Premier League competition – and, even if he does stick around, he will be the subject of mid-season transfer speculation ahead of the window reopening – punters should be looking to bet on Spurs performing below expectations.

Tottenham’s pre-season results have been disappointing to say the very least. Spurs have drawn with Colchester and Swindon and lost to Milton Keynes and Sunderland and their English Premier League opener is away to Crystal Palace. The Eagles will be totally fired up for their first game back in the top flight so Tottenham drew the short straw in being programmed to travel to Selhurst Park on the premiership’s opening day.

Bookmakers are having a laugh with their 41.00 quotes about Tottenham winning its first English league title since 1961 when they finished 17 points adrift of Manchester United last term and are likely to lose their marquee player.

Two exotic English Premier League markets pertaining to Tottenham’s performance in the upcoming season appeal from a betting perspective and none more than Sky Bet’s over/under line on Spurs points. The British bookmaker has set the bar at 68.5 points and invited punters to back either over or under at odds of 1.83 (for those familiar with the fractional odds format, decimal odds are explained here http://www.sportsbettingonline.net/decimal-odds/). Sky Bet can expect one-way traffic, with the under rating as a decent-sized long-term bet.

In spite of Bale performing miracles on an almost weekly basis since making a name for himself during the 2009-2010 English Premier League campaign, Tottenham’s points average over the last four seasons falls short of 68.5 points. Spurs accrued 72 points last term but it would be fair to say that many of the competition heavyweights – Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool being the prime offenders – did not have the greatest of seasons and, therefore, teams such as Tottenham benefitted by way of inflated points tallies.

With most of the English Premier League big guns likely to improve – Chelsea is the championship favourite with some bookmakers despite being 14 points off the pace last term – things are going to get tougher for Tottenham even if the London side manages to hold on to Bale’s services. Spread betting firm Sporting Index has framed its Spurs points market at 65-66.5, which feels closer to the right mark.

The second Tottenham-related price that stands out is the offer of 1.90 about Spurs finishing sixth or lower in the English Premier League this term. Stan James is the nice bookmaker offering this option and, let’s be honest, the only way that punters will not collect is if Tottenham places fourth or fifth because surely Spurs will not end up above Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United.

Tottenham has recorded four consecutive top-five English Premier League finishes but the only way is down for Spurs, with them unlikely to overhaul deadly rival Arsenal and the sleeping giant also known as Liverpool forecast to improve as Brendan Rodgers enters his second season as Reds boss.

What this particular bet boils down to is this: does one think that either Everton or Liverpool will finish above Tottenham this term? Punters are writing off the Toffees following the departure of David Moyes to Manchester United but time may show Moyes to be a managerial myth. Everton has recruited wisely by luring Roberto Martinez from Wigan and, again, time may end up showing that the Spaniard is a better boss than the Scot. The Toffees have not lost the players that some doomsayers were predicting that they would post Moyes so they are expected to make a decent fist of qualifying for Europe. The Reds are frustrating but they scored more goals and conceded fewer goals than Spurs last season so they are more than capable of climbing the ladder.

If one really thinks that Tottenham is heading for a fall then one could back Spurs to miss the top six at odds of around 4.00 but that would probably require both Merseyside teams to leapfrog them. That may be too much to ask.

Time will tell how the Bale saga plays out. But even if the Wales star moves to Real Madrid for a world record fee, is Tottenham the type of club that can replace him with two, three or four top-class talents? It will not matter how much money is in the bank if Spurs cannot convince their targets that coming to White Hart Lane will improve their prospects of winning major trophies. And that task will be almost impossible if Tottenham sells Bale to the Meringues.

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1 COMMENT

  1. Last summer we lost our "best" player to Real Madrid. Everyone said we'd be mid-table. This year the difference Bale made was scoring goals when the strikers weren't.

    Get some decent goalscorers and we'll be OK, maybe better.

  2. Wow, simply useless you are.

    Spurs have fielded nowhere near their first team in any of the pre-season games so far. And as for Bale performing week in week out miracles since 2010, you only have to look back to the first half of last season to see he was actually fairly anonymous until after christmas.

    To add to that, we’ve signed Paulinho, Doldado and Chadli who are three potentially world class players. Spurs will improve.

  3. You, sir, convinced me that Spurs will qualify to the Champions league, with or without Bale. I even consider a cheekybid for the title. :)

    Audere est facere!

  4. Our first chance to win tthe league and levy will be more intretsted in profit than out first titel in over 50 yeras. NO Bale NO chance. Even the 90million would be worthless because if spurs get into the top four and go far into the champions league they will make close thta figure. he should not be allowed to leave for a further season, but AVB will be off next.

  5. What an idiotic, completely unbalanced article! As one of the other comments has pointed out – we lost Modric last year and went on to finish 5th with no performing striker in the squad, a new manager and key players (Kaboul, Sandro) out for 6months plus! If we can keep those guys fit, and our new signings can bed in quickly then I think we'll have an even better season this year. If we keep Bale then great, but if not we'll re-invest some of the money and have an all-round deeper, stronger squad. Bring it on.

  6. You lost me when you stated;

    " but it would be fair to say that many of the competition heavyweights – Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool being the prime offenders – did not have the greatest of seasons and, therefore, teams such as Tottenham benefitted by way of inflated points tallies."

    Chelsea and Manchester City both finished above Tottenham. In their 4 matches against both these clubs Tottenham took 4 points from a possible twelve. I would hardly say Tottenham 'capitaised' from your perception of Man City and Chelsea having a 'poor' season.

    Liverpool have been getting worse for several seasons and still managed to beat Tottenham at Anfield last season.

    I can't remember the last time I read an article that was so far wide of the mark it was embarrassing.

    Do your research please.

  7. Backing the team you 'SUPPORT' to FAIL, seems like a great idea Neil! As does trying to create a negative energy around the club before a ball has even been kicked!!!

    People said the club would go backwards when we sold Carrick, Modric and Berbatov, and guess what, we didn't!!!!

    No player is bigger than an entire club! Ronaldo wasn't at Utd, and Bale won't be at Spurs, should the club decide to sell! I am not saying Tottenham SHOULD part company with the Welsh Winger, but if we do at the reported price (£95m), then that money could go an awful long way to strengthening the overall QUALITY and DEPTH of the current squad.

    MIGHT I SUGGEST YOU HOLD YOUR FAITH, NEIL…(I KNOW I WILL)!!!

  8. So Man U sold Ronaldo and got relegated? The other lot up the road constantly sell their best players – RVP but end up top 4. It's a team game and we would not have relied on last minute wonder goals from Bale if we had more quality strikers converting chances made by quality midfielders. We should have won at W Ham before Bales winner, same versus Sunderland. This season, two quality strikers, decent left back, Sandro, Kaboul back playing regularly and Bale will follow Modric as Madrid's worst signing of the season next year. Spurs will be a better TEAM and will win the Premiership in the next 2-3 seasons.

  9. Spurs got 72 points because MC, Chelsea etc didn't have a good season?? What kind of argument is that? I didn't think Spurs had a great season either…poor season start…and then those stupid losses…and still amassed 72 points.

    Since when did the PL use goals as points. Liverpool scored more goals and conceded less goals than Spurs. So what? I am glad the PL is still awarding 3 points for a win and not for the number of goals.

    Stupid article

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