In a previous article Why Tottenham Must Win on March 16th I noted that our points per game might be considered as 1.7, 2.0, or 2.3, depending on the games you decide should be counted. To cut a long story short, that would mean we would the season on 70, 74, or 78 points. If we finish on 74 points we would not be in the top four. If we finish on 74 points we might be in the top four, but my previous article suggest we would need to have won on 16 March for this to happen. If we finish on 78 points we would be in the top four comfortably. The previous article took an overview, but what of individual game predictions? I have given my optimistic (A) through to pessimistic (C) predictions in the table below, showing the predicted points tally for each scenario.

I have added the dates for the Europa League.  If we get through this round we are likely to face Benfica and how I would love us to win that one. To do it we would have to be at full strength. Would that affect our PL match results? Would Tim play full strength in the EL? How would the EL scenarios affect the PL results?

Of course if this were next year, winning the EL would gain us entry to the CL the year after.

Please add your thoughts.

Date Playing H/A

A

B

C

 
Sun 23 Feb Norwich A

3

3

3

Sun 02 Mar Cardiff H

3

3

3

Sat 08 Mar Chelsea A

1

0

0

Sun 16 Mar Arsenal H

3

1

0

Sun 23 Mar Southampton H

1

3

1

Sun 30 Mar Liverpool A

0

0

0

Sat 05 Apr Sunderland H

3

3

3

Sat 12 Apr West Brom A

3

1

1

Sat 19 Apr Fulham H

1

3

3

Sat 26 Apr Stoke A

3

1

1

Sat 03 May West Ham A

1

1

1

Sun 11 May Aston Villa H

3

3

3

 
Points

25

22

19

 
Total

75

72

69

Europa League Dates

Round of 16                13 March         20 March

Quarter-finals              03 April            10 April

Semi-finals                  24 April            01 May

Final                            14 May

3 Responses

  1. PhilipCOYS

    How nervous we Spurs supporters are !! If A is optimistic surely we would get 3 points against Southampton ? If we were optimistic then a point against Liverpool too !
    March is key.I think if we get 11 points or more from the next 6 games then we are in with an almighty shout !!

    Reply
  2. Brian

    The challenge with this was finding a balance. The simple Optimistic, Realistic, Pessimistic base is to give 3, 2 and 1 point for each match for the respective scenarios. Of course you cannot get 2 points per match and points is more than optimistic. I tried to box and cox a bit which is why there are some odd ones. The final tallies fit with other bases. Happy to accept he individual predictions could be well off – and am happy to hear more. Cheers.

    Reply
  3. TonyRich

    Your “pessimistic” is not what I would call “pessimistic”… If ManC can only muster a 0-0 away to Norwich, then a pessimist would be likely to say 0-0 for us too, and that is taking into account our good away form… A defeat is possible despite Norwich not winning much these days, but they need one soon. Have you got your fulham predictions in reverse?
    Another way of looking at it is that an optimist would project Sherwood’s record of 23 points in 10 games onto the rest of the season: 2.3 pts per game -> 77 points. A realist would look and see that we are matching last season’s points totals… which would mean that we will end up with about -> 72 points. A pessimistic could consider Sherwood’s time as a honeymoon period, and we revert back to pre Sherwood points rate of 20.25 pts per game, which projects to -> 70 pts. That surprisingly matches your predictions rather closely….

    Reply

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