Why Tottenham must win on March 16th

There is the usual pressure and the desire to win a derby game. We need the points if we are to even think of 4^th spot, but there is more to it this time and the term ‘6-pointer’ may never have meant as much to Spurs as it might on March 16^th. Surely we are trying to catch Liverpool? The match on the 16 March is just about getting three points in that race isn’t it, plus pride of course? Maybe it isn’t. There is a case that it is not Liverpool we will be vying with for 4^th spot. In considering this I am only looking up and not down to Everton and MU. I am also not considering goal difference in this scenario. If it comes to a situation in which goal difference is to be the decider between Spurs and any of the current top four, then we would be condemned to 5^th place. I am also assuming Chelsea and MC will not slip up. That is, if we are to do it, we have to be ahead of either Liverpool or the old enemy.

I will throw in here that I think getting a top four finish now would appeal to me a lot more on football (financial remains the same) reasons than it would have a few weeks back. The reason for this is that if (and that is an important if) we continue to play with energy, determination and purpose, and we retain key fit players, and we play flexibly, approaching each game as is required rather than in a fixed format, I think Spurs would have a very decent CL run in 2014-15, as I can only see improvement.

So what’s the reasoning for my first paragraph? First, I am taking as a basis that Liverpool have been improving, and although the current table does not demonstrate it, Arsenal have been doing less well.

Let’s take a look at the current situation.

By the way, did you notice how many pundits got mixed up about who was in charge when they were discussing our away record? They mixed up Spurs winning away games with Tim being in charge and attributed none of those games to AVB. Anyway, back to the future. The table below shows where we were up to AVB’s departure and it shows clear improvement in points per game. It may not seem a huge difference, as we are still 5^th, but it really is.

On 1.69 points per game, the total would be 64 points over 38 games. On 1.92 points per game, the total would be 73 points over 38 games. In 2012-13, 73 points got 4^th spot, and I do not need to remind you which team got it. 64 points would have got 6^th place. In 2011-12, 73 points would have got 4^th place and in 2010-11, 73 points would have got 2^nd place. Given this and given some recent experiences, it is safe to say that the number of points needed to be in the top four is increasing, even if it is only by a point or so a year. Given the competition at the top this year the final column in the first table looks scary, but there are saving factors.

We are six points of second place. Let’s have a look at some recent form, in fact form from 17 December after Tim took over. We are in second place though MC have a game in hand.

The final column takes existing table figures and adds the remaining games multiplied by points per game. Well this is wonderful and what’s all this nonsense about Liverpool? Let’s look at the last five games. There are other teams in the mix on form (West Ham for example) but I am not including them so we can focus on the issue in hand.

The final column takes existing table figures and adds the remaining games multiplied by points per game. I really do not think MC will slip like that. I do think there may be just one point in it between us and you know who, as per last year. We must hope that current form continues but there is a real opportunity on 16 March to take matters into our own hands. A win at WHL would be a real boost and by ‘real’ I mean six points!  That may make the difference between 4^th and 5^th spot.

COYS