Analysis: A finish this season for Spurs above 6th place is over performing

17
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Dom Le Roy

With 14 games left to play the Premier League seems to split into 4 sub divisions. Spurs look to be in a straight fight for fourth place with Liverpool, Everton and Manchester United.

To know where you are going, you need to know where you are. So where are Spurs?

Where is Tottenham Hotspur?

It’s hard to find measures that track club performance accurately, otherwise we’d all be beating the bookies, but there are some impartial ones that give us some clues.

Overall club revenue gives an idea of success through sponsorship, ground size & expansion and also increased reward from league and cup revenues. Delloite recently published their football money league for 2014. Here is how the top 6 clubs measure:

Season 2012/13 Revenue (Euros)
1 Manchester United 431.2m
2 Manchester City 316.2m
3 Chelsea 303.4m
4 Arsenal 284.0m
5 Liverpool 240.6m
6 Tottenham 172.0m

Another measure comes from www.transfermarkt.co.uk they provide dynamic player and team values. A look through shows it’s not perfect, but it’s not miles out either. Top 6 here as follows:

Transfermarkt values 30-1-14 (Euros)
1 Manchester City 451.2m
2 Chelsea 386.25m
3 Manchester United 376.5m
4 Arsenal 371.0m
5 Liverpool 281.8m
6 Tottenham 276.5m

OK just numbers, but it tells us Arsenal are currently over performing and Manchester United are underperforming – so go figure. It also highlights that for Spurs to finish Fourth would be punching above our weight and either Manchester United or Liverpool would need to underperform.Levy deserves great credit for building our team up over the years to get into this position.

What’s the target for Fourth Place?

Here are the Fourth place points totals for the last 6 years:

Points total for 4th Position in PL
Year

Total

2012-13

73

2011-12

69

2010-11

68

2009-10

70

2008-09

72

2006-07

68

Total

420

Average

70

The points spread across the division this year indicate a highest ever fourth place points total perhaps in the 74-76 point range.

What does this mean for Spurs?

The 73 points Spurs achieved last season was a club record, meaning this year we’d have to break that again.

Points

Games

Average

76

38

2.00

75

38

1.97

74

38

1.95

73

38

1.92

So rounding up we need to be thinking about an average of 2 points a game or even a bit higher. Right now we have:

Points

Games

Average

44

24

1.83

Tim’s stats look more impressive:

Points

Games

Average

17

8

2.13

OK, so only 8 games, but included in that was Man U away and City at home. Even so the facts stand up, I don’t think anyone can accuse Sherwood of doing badly at all

OK so a bit behind the curve. Can we catch up, win games against lesser competition, be solid at home and the answer looks like yes, despite everything it will be possible to record our highest points total in the Premier League. Only 3 of the remaining games are against clubs above us in the league.

However we need to look at the facts, we have no right to be in the Top 4. To do this would require us to seriously over perform.

The team that is over performing now is Liverpool. Is that really a surprise? They have spent much more money on players than we have over the last three season, have kept their world class player and have a stable management team, and as yet they have not addressed the issue of upgrading their ground.

We run our club as a business rather than a billionaires plaything, have delivered a world class training centre and have our Ssadium plans well underway. We haven’t chosen to sell our best players, but have got the best possible price when we learned they wanted to leave.

Also we stand to finish this season with a heathly transfer budget available for Tim or whoever may be coming in and a current squad with depth in a number of positions.

So even more patience is required from us fans and the understanding a finish outside of the Top 4 is not disaster.

[poll id=”6″]

COYS – Adam Wright

Have something to tell us about this article?

17 COMMENTS

  1. Interesting read. It sounds so simple on paper though! There will definitely be ups and downs until the end of the season. I am hoping that Liverpool run out of steam as they seem to be over reliant on several players and we now have the team close to full strength so should be able to rotate better. Everton remain a team to watch out for too. COYS!!

  2. over the same games AVB had 18 with a far inferior team we needed re building because we have lost Ledders,vdv,modders,bale, thats the job AVB done with 1 world class player a record number of points compare Redcrapp who had those 5 World Class Players fact ,he underachieved and also when sacked still 2pts above last seasons total
    why dont you compare say over the last 5 yrs our net spend is 777,000 each season then say we are over achieving and the dickheads
    on theses sites who seem to think we have a devine right to top four!

    • I know Keith, when people look at our spend they forget what we sold. I heard on a podcast our 5 year Net Spend was £700k in total,
      It's on my mind to do an in depth on this subject, but it does take time!

  3. NONSENSE! Finishing outside top 4 is not a disaster! Who can invest 100 mill + and NOT expect top 4??? We have a better squad than Arsenal and Liverpool, we just need to find someone that can use the squad better to maximise results. I think AVB's sacking was premature, and a bit of a knee-jerk reaction. To me he was trying to work on a project, solid at the back and work fwd. Yes, we had a couple of freak results, but hey! Shit happens in football. Sherwood is definitely not the one who is going to get all out of this squad. We will not make top 4, and it's all squarely on Dan Levy's shoulders.

    • on what measure do you think we have a better Squad than Arsenal & Liverpool? Even if we do they have a better 1st 11 and right now both teams have been able to field most of their 1st 11. The big question is will they be able to for the last 14 games.

  4. Good analyst and at the moment our form upfront is not good enough to finish in top four we have the 8th best attack and the 9th worse defense 31 for 32 against a -1 just ahead of Villa. Last season we conceded 46 and scored 66 with Bale getting 21 of those 66 we need over 30 odd goals to stay in the race for top four playing 442 will help but we need to score first for our defense to get us points Defoe to be used and after he leaves Kane or other youngsters like Kane Oduwa Coulthirst Onomah Coulibaly have to have a go. The Lad Oduwa is a massive unit a youngster already in a mans body with dribbling skills and eye for a goal. These three have trained with full sqaud this week and i am not surprised Ogilive Onomah Oduwa all improving by every week of there young lives and will be knocking on Tim's door in the not to distant future

  5. Spurs will only have a chance of winning the Premier league title when they have a 60,000 seater stadium. Then they can attract and keep the very best players by paying top wages.

    • That's a great shout, we were in for Mata (1st time round) Oscar, Negredo, Dzeko and Willian but couldn't match offers elsewhere

  6. Good article. Rational and articulate – quite rare on Spurs blogs! Good to see no moaning and slagging people off, from Levy to Broadway Danny, for 'only' getting a point at Hull.
    But of course the revenue / spending figures hide the fact that random factors play a huge role in football – refereeing decisions, injuries, worldies flying in, ball bobbles etc etc. In Eriksen we've got a fantastically skilled creator who the other top clubs would love I'm sure. So, why not? Top 4 is possible, win, lose or draw this Sunday. To DAVSPURS, don't read too much into those goal difference stats. They owe so much to three terrible games and two harsh sendings offs. But clearly, Spurs don't put away enough of their chances, that's for sure.

  7. A net spend of 770,000 over 5 yrs and yet everybody thinks spurs are big spenders, LOL Mr Levy is conning us all and asking for the impossible of managers to finish in top 4 when he is balancing the books. Also putting season ticket prices up every year when he sells our best players and replaces them with inferior ones ie Modic for Dembele RVD with Dempsey so on and so on. Mr Levy is the one who should step aside and let someone else stear the ship because he's way just doesn't work. Giving a manager 7 new players and expecting him to make them gel in side 1/2 a season is ridiculous. AVB was sacked way to early and now we have a manager with even less experience to do the impossible job great. Top 4 no chance.

    • It's tricky isn't it. Under Levy we have steadily grown into a regular top 5 team – something we haven't achieved for 30 years. There is so much progress on all fronts and much to be admired.
      I even get the idea of a Top 4 Target, you know aim high and all that. But we all maybe need some patience and Levy needs to work on building some stability on the coaching side of the club. We don't know what went on behind the scenes with Harry going. Although I understand the appointment of Paul Stretford as Harry's agent and his sky high demands like a cut of player profit sales was the final straw. As for AVB, well that has to go down as a negative for the Spurs board. How can things change so much in 18 months.

  8. A sublte point in this article too. Look at the facts Tim Sherwood has done a great job so far so lets get behind him and the team

  9. The money being tossed around in the Premier League is crazy. It's got to end eventually, how much more can the average fan or sponsor spend? Look at Spain's economy ; how long will these clubs be able to keep up this kind of spending?

  10. Nice article Adam. I am curious who would be in 7th place in those tables (I suspect it's Newcastle), and how far behind us – it would have added a useful perspective to our own relative position.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.