How stats experts think Spurs should be placed in the Premier League table

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Dom Le Roy

Tottenham looked certain to finish in the top four just a couple of weeks ago as they found themselves ten points clear off Arsenal in fith spot but the lead has now almost evaporated after Spurs lost three and drew one of their four games.

With Arsenal now just a point behind Spurs and with the Lilywhites yet to travel to Anfield and the Etihad, there are fears among Spurs fans that the club could finish outside the top four for the first time in four seasons.

This would be the worst possible time to be deprived off Champions League football as Tottenham will have their first full season at the new stadium to look forward to.

While Tottenham still sit third in the Premier League table, an alternate table based on the ‘Expected Goals’ stat paints an entirely different story. Expected Goals calculates the number of goals a team is expected to score given the quality of the chances they create in each game.

According to talkSPORT, the table calculated based on xG has Tottenham currently sit in 5th position with 49.50 points, more than eleven points fewer than they actually have this season. Chelsea sit in the third position with 53.71 points while Man Utd are fourth with 49.76 points.

In fact, Man Utd, Chelsea, Spurs are Arsenal are separated by only 5 points in the xG table, which indicates that there is little separating the four sides vying for the final two Champions League positions.

If ‘Expected Goals’ is anything to go by, then fans can expect the race for the Champions League spots to go right down to the wire.

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