Report: Which team Spurs are most likely to draw in Champions League based on probability

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Dom Le Roy

Tottenham Hotspur are through to the Champions League round of sixteen draw which takes place on Monday morning in Switzerland.

Spurs are among the unseeded teams as they finished second in their group, however, they can only be drawn against five of the eight top seed sides.

This is because Tottenham cannot be drawn against Liverpool or Man City, as they are fellow English clubs, or Bayern Munich who were in Group B with Spurs.

This leaves Barcelona, Juventus, PSG, Valencia, and Red Bull Leipzig as the five possible opponents for Spurs in the last 16.

While many would assume that it is a straight 20% chance to draw each side, that is not actually the case.

Due to various rules, including no teams from the same country playing against each other and no sides from the same group facing off, the probabilities switch.

Four Four Two have pointed towards the work of mathematician Julien Guyon on Twitter, who has come up with a spreadsheet to show the true draw chances.

Spurs are apparently most likely to draw Valencia, with a 22.6% chance. The least likely opponent is PSG with just 17.3%. Juventus are at 20.7%, Barcelona at 22%, and Leipzig at 17.3%.

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