Tottenham rank as the Premier League’s biggest overachievers in terms of points earned this season according to data from statistics database Understat.
Spurs have experienced a recent upturn in form under Antonio Conte with three league wins on the bounce propelling the club up to fifth in the table after 15 games.
However, statistics claim Spurs have actually been fortunate with their tally of 25 points, with Expected Points (xPts) noting they should have far less compared to their actual performances.
The measure uses the data of Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA) from each match a club plays to work out the probability of the team winning based on the quality of the chances created throughout.
Understat have tracked that Spurs are the Premier League’s biggest overachievers in terms of points recorded, with the data suggesting Conte’s side have picked up 5.76 more points than their performances should have yielded.
As such, Spurs’ xPTS tally of 19.24 sees them lingering towards the lower end of mid-table in the Premier League in 13th behind Manchester United and just ahead of Leeds.
United are the division’s second biggest overachievers earning 4.67 more points than expected, while Spurs’ rivals Chelsea are third by picking up an extra 4.27 points.
Spurs Web Opinion
A lot of the time ‘expected’ statistics show how lucky and unlucky a team has been, so it can be looked at in a positive and negative way. It shows Spurs have been clinical with their winning performances this season, but as the statistics show, it may not be a sustainable way of playing going forward.
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