Supercomputer predicts how PL top four race will end – 10% chance for West Ham

Premier League Trophy
Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images

Data Analytics firm FiveThirtyEight have claimed that Arsenal are currently the favourites to finish fourth ahead of Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and West Ham.

Tottenham’s 3-2 loss at home to Southampton came as a bitter blow to the club’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League.

However, Spurs are still pretty well placed in the race, sitting just four points behind West Ham in fourth place with three games in hand over the Hammers.

Antonio Conte’s men had to watch Arsenal capitalise on their mistake this week though, with the Gunners recording a 1-0 victory over Wolves on Thursday.

After the results this week, FiveThirtyEight predict that Arsenal will finish in fourth place with 66 points and that Spurs will finish fifth with 62.

According to their calculations, Mikel Arteta’s men have a 46 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League, while Spurs have just a 24 per cent chance of doing so.

Manchester United and West Ham have been given an 18 per cent and 10 per cent chance respectively of finishing in the top four.

Spurs Web Opinion

These kinds of calculations are always off the mark as there are simply too many different variables to consider.

Despite our loss on Wednesday, I believe we have the best chance of finishing fourth among the four clubs involved in the race.

I do not how Arsenal have been handed a 46 per cent chance, given the lack of goals on their side at the moment after Aubameyang’s departure

Have something to tell us about this article?


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.