Data analytics firm FiveThirtyEight, who specialise in numbers and simulations, have predicted that Tottenham Hotspur will finish in seventh place once again this season.
Tottenham’s 2-1 win over Leeds United on Sunday brought Antonio Conte’s men up to seventh in the standings, just four points behind fourth-placed West Ham.
However, FiveThirtyEight’s simulator suggests that the Lilywhites have very little chance of achieving Champions League qualification.
They predict that West Ham will finish fourth with 62 points, Man Utd in fifth with 59, Arsenal on 58 points and Tottenham with just 55.
Further, their model suggests that the Hammers have a 31 per cent chance of finishing in the top four while Man Utd and Arsenal have 20 per cent and 18 per cent each.
On the other hand, Tottenham are given just a 10 per cent chance of making the top four, making the North Londoners fourth favourites for the spot.
Spurs Web Opinion
While simulation models like this are data-driven and make use of a lot of different analytical variables, the problem is that there are simply too many variables to account for in order to make predictions with any sort of accuracy.
For example, I am not sure how FiveThirtyEight could have fully accounted for how Antonio Conte’s appointment would change Tottenham’s chances. I personally think we have as good a chance as Man Utd and a better chance than both Arsenal and West Ham of finishing fourth.
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