I am a Statistician, probably !

It is that time of season again where I present you with the run in to the title race. So let’s do this and  analyse the remaining fixtures.

The Arse were lucky to not drop points against Leicester at home. They look a bit dodgy to stay in both Champions League and FA Cup. The trip to WHL is their season but not ours ! The arse are away at United, Spurs, Everton, West Ham, Sunderland and City. There are not many points to be had there. They might force a draw at one of the Manchesters, nick a result at Everton but dropping at least 2 points against Sunderland and West Ham away. If they don’t beat us at the Lane I do not fancy their chances of overtaking us let alone Leicester. Even if they stay perfect at home which is feasible, I see them dropping 9 points and that is if they get an unlikely draw at the Lane. Watch out for those two tricky home London derbies with Watford and Palace and two away derbies at Spurs and West Ham. They will struggle in Manchester and Everton could do everyone a favour.

Arse (6-6) dropping 9 points
home : Swansea, WBA, Watford, Palace, Norwich, Villa
away : Man Utd, Spurs, Everton, West Ham, Sunderland, Man City

Man City have been poor away this season (they have been poor at home too !) but they are still in the hunt. Stop Aguero and stop City. They have 7 away games with 3 tricky away games at Liverpool, Chelsea and Southampton and two hard games at home with United and the Arse. You can see them dropping 9 points (losing one drawing one at Liverpool and Chelsea, drawing in Southampton and drawing with United or the Arse). They also have a League Cup final, FA Cup and Champions League. I fancy a Champions League focus for them.

Man Shitty dropping 9 points
home : Villa, United, WBA, Stoke, Arse
away : Liverpool, Norwich, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Soton, Swansea

Spurs are capable of dispatching all of their away games but I think Chelsea away is our hardest remaining fixture. If we lose at Chelsea and grab a point at Anfield (or visa versa) we should have too much for all except West Ham who could give us a problem or two. At home we struggle a bit more and can see us dropping two points at home although I do fancy all the points on March 5th. We can lose that and still end up higher than the Arse but if we beat them then I believe their premier league is done. Spurs dropping 7 points and beating the arse. Beware of the Teams that really hate us Arse, Chelski, happy Hammers and the two reds United and Pool. The FA Cup will no longer be a distraction for us but we MUST get back to winning immediately – “good habits”. I don’t feel the same about the Europa farce thing. It is a problem.

Spurs (6-6) dropping 7 points
home : Swansea, Arse, Bournemouth, United, WBA, Soton
away : West Ham, Villa, Liverpool, Stoke, Chelsea, Newcastle

That brings us to the biggest problem of all ! Leicester City. They can have this all tied up and gift wrapped before the end of April. They only have 5 away games. Logic dictates that Leicester can drop points anywhere….. but not this season ! I can see them losing at Chelsea and United but unless they start dropping points soon, no-one will be able to catch them. You have to hope that either Watford or Sunderand get lucky at home or WBA, Southampton, West Ham or Everton have an effect on Leicester at home. The only thing I will say is that it can all go tits up for Leicester very quickly and they need to beat Norwich next week desperately to get back into winning ways. I see Leicester dropping 8 points or 15 !! It really is theirs to lose ! (What !!)

Leicester dropping 8 points
home : Norwich, WBA, Newcastle, Soton, West Ham, Swansea, Everton
away : Watford, Palace, Sunderland, Man United, Chelsea

So my key points are that simply put Leicester have to start losing for Spurs to make up those 2 points. Arsenal and Man City can only compete if their respective away form gets better. I fancy Spurs to maintain their concentration and certainly dispatch the Arse and United at the Lane. We need a point at Liverpool and for Chelsea to go back to sleep when they play us and not get too bitter ! It is harder for us to go to Villa for a result than to go to Liverpool because Liverpool have to attack which gives us space to play in.

Lastly I read a lot of Spurs articles and I love the new found optimism – which I believe is warranted. However we have only got Harry Kane and he hasn’t been too hot recently. I think it would be fortuitous to go out of the UEFA Cup so he would not be so streettchheeed. Kane’s form is key.

If we don’t win it this year – which is a big ask – we are young enough to continue where we left off this year plus Berahino plus another seasoned striker – and win it next year !

BTW if we do win the Premier Peague not only will I weep with joy but I will get a cockerel tattoo on my arse !! Anyone with me for a 10 yo malt, a tatt and a big FU to the Arse (or mine actually !).

Mark Norris