West Ham United host Arsenal at the London Stadium on Sunday, and depending on what happens there, Tottenham could walk into Monday night’s home game against Leeds United comfortably above the drop zone or back within it. But can Spurs fans afford to rely on that result, and why is the answer more complicated than it looks?
Let’s be honest with each other. We’ve been burned too many times this season to approach anything rationally. After the injuries, the managerial upheaval, and the nights where relegation felt inevitable, the last thing any of us should be doing is placing our survival hopes in the hands of West Ham United. And yet here we are.
The situation going into the weekend is straightforward. Spurs sit 17th on 37 points, one ahead of West Ham in 18th on 36, with a goal difference ten better. Nottingham Forest are five clear in 16th and effectively safe. Leeds United have pulled well clear in 14th. This is a two-horse race: Tottenham and West Ham, with nothing else to worry about.
| Position | Team | Played MP | Won W | Drawn D | Lost L | For GF | Against GA | Diff GD | Points Pts |
| 15 |  Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 43 |
| 16 |  Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 42 |
| 17 |  TottenhamTottenham | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 37 |
| 18 |  West HamWest Ham | 35 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 42 | 61 | -19 | 36 |
| 19 |  BurnleyBurnley | 35 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 20 |
The maths of Sunday are simple. If West Ham lose to Arsenal and we beat Leeds on Monday, we go to 40 points with two games to play. If West Ham win on Sunday and we then win on Monday, we go to 40 and they sit on 39 – still one point behind us, same gap as now.
The difference is the pressure of walking into that Leeds game knowing we must win just to stay level. A draw takes West Ham to 37, level with us on points but still behind on goal difference – we stay above, the gap just tightens dramatically. So, can we risk hoping?
Here is where it gets genuinely complicated. Because this is Arsenal. Our biggest rivals. The club we have spent decades building a deep and enthusiastic hatred for. The last thing any Spurs fan wants – in any season, under any circumstances – is to watch Arsenal lift a league title. Let alone while we are down here scrambling to stay in the Premier League. The optics alone would haunt us for years.
So there is a real conflict here. Part of us wants West Ham to spoil the show. The other part knows that a West Ham win is the worst thing that can happen to our survival chances. That is the dilemma Sunday serves up.
The honest answer is that a draw is the ideal result for Tottenham fans this weekend. A draw takes West Ham to 37, level on points but still well behind on goal difference – we stay above, go into Leeds still in control, and remove any momentum a West Ham win would generate.
We still need to beat Leeds. We still take care of our own business. But at least we do it without having handed Arsenal the party invite at the same time.
Why West Ham beating Arsenal should be the last thing on the minds of Tottenham fans
Of course, we understand the temptation. But a West Ham win doesn’t tighten our safety net – it removes it entirely. They’d go two points clear of us before we’ve kicked a ball. And hoping for that to happen means trusting a side that just lost 3-0 at Brentford, in a week where we went to Villa Park and climbed out of the bottom three above them. Roberto De Zerbi has done that much, at least.
West Ham are not a side playing well right now. Their fate is no longer in their own hands after the Brentford result, nine wins from 35 games, and a goal difference of minus 19. Arsenal have had big wins at the London Stadium in each of the past two seasons, conceding just three goals across those two meetings.
Opta’s supercomputer gives West Ham just a 19.3 per cent chance of winning on Sunday, with a draw considered more likely than a Hammers victory. These are not numbers that inspire confidence. Then again, Spurs are not exactly flying either, so let’s not get too comfortable on that high horse.
More to the point, the team travelling to the London Stadium is Arsenal, five points clear at the top with three games to play and a Champions League final already in the diary. They are not coming to the London Stadium for a friendly. Bukayo Saka is back. Viktor Gyökeres is scoring. The whole thing is clicking along nicely for them, which is as painful to type as it is to watch. Arsenal are not dropping points here by accident.
Why West Ham are not a completely lost cause against Arsenal
That said, it would be dishonest not to acknowledge this: West Ham have a history of making this fixture awkward for Arsenal. Last season, they went to the Emirates and won when Arsenal were chasing Liverpool at the top. The season before, they held them to a 2-2 draw when things were tight. This fixture does not always go the way it should, and Nuno Espírito Santo will set his team up to make it ugly, compact, and uncomfortable.
There is also the matter of motivation. West Ham need to win to have any realistic chance of survival. Jarrod Bowen – eight goals, ten assists this season – is exactly the sort of player who can punish a high defensive line on the counter. It is not inconceivable. It is just unlikely.
And building a survival plan around unlikely is not a plan at all.
What the Arsenal result actually means for Tottenham’s survival odds
Here is the version of Sunday that matters most to us. If Arsenal win, as most expect, West Ham stay on 36 points going into their final two games. We host Leeds on Monday night and, if we win, we move to 40 points with Chelsea and Everton still to come. That all-but confirms survival; only once in 30 seasons of the Premier League has a team been relegated with more than 40 points, a quirk of history involving West Ham themselves in 2002-03 with 42.
If West Ham beat Arsenal, they move to 39 points and above us in 17th. We would go into Monday’s game against Leeds needing a win just to restore our one-point lead. In that scenario, the pressure on the Leeds game becomes even more acute: lose or draw and we are staring at a final two games that include Chelsea away and Everton at home, still needing points.
A win against Leeds on Monday night makes the Arsenal result largely irrelevant. A loss makes it everything. That is the simplest summary of where we are.
Why De Zerbi’s message should be Tottenham’s only focus
Roberto De Zerbi has said it repeatedly since arriving at the club, and he was right to. After the Villa win, Conor Gallagher echoed it: the only result Spurs can control is their own. De Zerbi told his players to focus on themselves, not the table, not the opposition, not what West Ham are doing on Sunday. That is not naive optimism. It is the right call.
What we saw at Villa Park last Sunday, the pressing, the organisation, the collective determination from a squad decimated by injuries, was a team that had bought entirely into that mindset. Richarlison’s header, Mathys Tel’s delivery, Randal Kolo Muani’s relentless running for an hour; none of it happened because the players were thinking about West Ham. It happened because De Zerbi had them locked in on the task in front of them.
Leeds United arrive at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday in 14th place, seven points clear of the drop, and with no pressure to speak of. In normal circumstances, that is a dangerous opponent, a side with nothing to lose and fresh legs.
But Daniel Farke’s team have gone five away games without a win, managing just four draws and a defeat in that run. If Spurs match the intensity of the Villa performance, it is a winnable game.
Can Spurs make the Arsenal result irrelevant before Monday is done?
Yes. And that is the only answer worth focusing on.
We are all going to have one eye on the London Stadium on Sunday. But hoping West Ham pull off one of the results of their season is not a strategy. It is noise. The strategy is beating Leeds on Monday, then Chelsea, then Everton, and never needing to care what West Ham did or did not do.
De Zerbi has done enough in three weeks to deserve the benefit of the doubt. The squad showed at Villa Park that they are capable of delivering at the sharpest moments. If we take care of our own business, Sunday becomes a footnote. If we don’t, it becomes the thing we spend the summer replaying. It remains to be seen whether this group can back up that Villa performance, but the belief is there, and Monday night is ours to take.
Let’s not give West Ham the burden of rescuing us. Let’s rescue ourselves.
- READ MORE: Comparing Tottenham and West Ham’s final three fixtures in tense Premier League survival battle