Striker comparison update

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Image: SpursWeb

In a previous article ‘The Case for Charlie Austin’ I showed statistics for Harry Kane, Charlie Austin, Christian Benteke and Danny Ings.

I have updated the table by removing Danny Ings and including Saido Berahino, Javier Hernández and Fernando Llorente, as rumours about these two coming to Spurs have been particularly strong this past week. I have also added a new statistic, Minutes per goal. This seems to me the most reasonable statistic to consider when looking at frequency of goal scoring. Using appearances can be deceptive, so I have removed that. The figures for Hernández are for 2013-14 while all the others are for 2014-15. This gives PL comparisons, rather than comparing with La Liga. I cannot do similar for Llorente as he has no PL statistics, which is a reason I would have against buying him if a proven PL striker can be obtained.

I maintain what I want from a striker are goals (at least one in two games) and shot accuracy. Give me those two and I’ll live without assists and other stuff. In fact, shot accuracy is a key factor, as a bounce of the keeper or the woodwork and a team mate can slot it home.

We need two very good quality strikers, as we will have around seventy games next season and maybe more if we do well. One of those strikers needs to be as good as Harry Kane in regard to minutes per goal and shot accuracy. Keep in mind that Austin and Berahino were playing for two dire teams last season and would be expected to do better with a decent team around them. Also, there are times when two strikers would be a good option and Berahino can play with Kane. He has score ten in thirteen for the England Under 21s. As he can play alongside Kane I think he could also play alongside Austin.

Here we go.

  Kane Austin Benteke Berahino Hernández Llorente
Age 21 25 24 21 27 30
Minutes played 2589 3065 2378 2925 853 1955
Goals 21 18 13 14 4 7
Minutes : goal 123 170 183 209 213 279
Shot accuracy 58% 67% 45% 54% 64% 47%

Based on the above I would not want Llorenete and I would not be interested in Benteke. I think Berahino is still improving and if he could be bought for a reasonable price I would take him.

I would then take one of Austin or possibly Hernández. From the figures you might wonder about Hernández, but he was scoring a goal every 97 minutes in 2012-13. Maybe playing bit parts has taken off his edge. The question is, can it return. At 27 I would imagine he still has the quality, the drive the fitness and the energy. His La Liga figures are 882 minutes played and 7 goals, with 63% shot accuracy. He scored a goal every 126 minutes. If that is the true Hernández then I would say snap him up if he is available for the right price. Ah – price – the big factor. Here are my guesses for the three I favour. Austin £15 million. Berahino £10 million. Hernández £12 million. Hernández is rumoured to be around £9 million, but I think MU would hold out for more and it may be he is not going to be for sale as they may use him in the coming season..

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Brian has been a Spurs supporter from around 1960, so was there for the double, the FA Cup in 1962 and the European Cup Winners Cup in 1963. He admits to having cried when Spurs lost to Benfica in the 1962 European Cup Semi-final and to times when he could weep when watching Spurs for the past few years (but for very different reasons). Brian has been lucky enough to see greats such as Jimmy Greaves, Pat Jennings, Glenn Hoddle and Paul Gascoigne. During the 60s, 70s and 80s Spurs won at least one domestic trophy and one European trophy each decade (with those wonderful all white strip floodlit games). It has taken Brian more than 20 years to realise that may take a while to come back, but hope lives on.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Dzeko has been mooted as top quality. Here are his stats for 2014-15. As mentioned, I am purely looking at a top notch striker – not a midfielder who can pop in a goal occasionally.

    Age 29 Minutes played 948 Goals 4 Minutes : goal 237 Shot accuracy 41%

    2013-14 was a lot better with 16 goals in 1987 minutes, a goal every 124 minutes, but a shot accuracy of 46%.

    Finally, 2012-13 showed 14 goals in 1822 minutes, a goal every 130 minutes and 53% shot accuracy.

    If 2012-13 and 2013-14 show how he would play now, great. I am wary that a big price would be asked and we might see the 2014-15 performance.

  2. Where did you get those values from? Far too low in my view.

    I would take Berahino first (attitude problems but may be growing up now) and Austin next, but the strong rumours are he can't pass a medical, hence why no one has bought him.

    Hernandez won't suit Spurs and, if true, £100k/ weekvis ridiculous and Levy wouldn't pay it for someone so non- essential and not massively successful.

    Llorenete only as striker three, if he is on a short contract for not masses of money , as he is over the crest of the hill and the only way is down.

    • If you mean the player valuations, I thought I stated the answer to your question in the article. In regard to transfer fees, I may not be the best guesser. We should, however, rember that there is often a public price and a real price. The real price is what is paid now. It may be more is paid later, but that often hinges on other things.

      What are your valuations and sources?

  3. Agree – Hernandez together with Berahino or Austin – or consider Batshuayi who still appears to be in the mix.
    Bentake has signed and definitely Llorente is not worth a large fee and big salary.

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