In a previous article ‘The Case for Charlie Austin’ I showed statistics for Harry Kane, Charlie Austin, Christian Benteke and Danny Ings.
I have updated the table by removing Danny Ings and including Saido Berahino, Javier Hernández and Fernando Llorente, as rumours about these two coming to Spurs have been particularly strong this past week. I have also added a new statistic, Minutes per goal. This seems to me the most reasonable statistic to consider when looking at frequency of goal scoring. Using appearances can be deceptive, so I have removed that. The figures for Hernández are for 2013-14 while all the others are for 2014-15. This gives PL comparisons, rather than comparing with La Liga. I cannot do similar for Llorente as he has no PL statistics, which is a reason I would have against buying him if a proven PL striker can be obtained.
I maintain what I want from a striker are goals (at least one in two games) and shot accuracy. Give me those two and I’ll live without assists and other stuff. In fact, shot accuracy is a key factor, as a bounce of the keeper or the woodwork and a team mate can slot it home.
We need two very good quality strikers, as we will have around seventy games next season and maybe more if we do well. One of those strikers needs to be as good as Harry Kane in regard to minutes per goal and shot accuracy. Keep in mind that Austin and Berahino were playing for two dire teams last season and would be expected to do better with a decent team around them. Also, there are times when two strikers would be a good option and Berahino can play with Kane. He has score ten in thirteen for the England Under 21s. As he can play alongside Kane I think he could also play alongside Austin.
Here we go.
|Minutes : goal||123||170||183||209||213||279|
Based on the above I would not want Llorenete and I would not be interested in Benteke. I think Berahino is still improving and if he could be bought for a reasonable price I would take him.
I would then take one of Austin or possibly Hernández. From the figures you might wonder about Hernández, but he was scoring a goal every 97 minutes in 2012-13. Maybe playing bit parts has taken off his edge. The question is, can it return. At 27 I would imagine he still has the quality, the drive the fitness and the energy. His La Liga figures are 882 minutes played and 7 goals, with 63% shot accuracy. He scored a goal every 126 minutes. If that is the true Hernández then I would say snap him up if he is available for the right price. Ah – price – the big factor. Here are my guesses for the three I favour. Austin £15 million. Berahino £10 million. Hernández £12 million. Hernández is rumoured to be around £9 million, but I think MU would hold out for more and it may be he is not going to be for sale as they may use him in the coming season..
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